The case against negative splits: how elite pacing has changed in five seasons
Marathon

The case against negative splits: how elite pacing has changed in five seasons

Newsroom desk Updated 16 Jul 2026

What we know

The textbook second-half-faster than first-half advice no longer maps cleanly onto top-10 marathon finishes in the elite field.

The detail

Five seasons of finish data show an even split becoming the modal pattern, with a number of top-three finishes achieved by 50:50 paces. Negative splits now sit slightly below the median.

What happens next

The full data set is on the methodology page and the article series continues next week.

Source policy

This story is reported with named sourcing and updated as confirmed details emerge. The editorial standards describe how we verify and correct; the contact page lists the secure channels for tips and documents.

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