The knockout round of the Champions League begins in three weeks and three tactical questions will define who progresses. We asked three opposition analysts — and reached our own conclusions from verifiable event data — about how each of these patterns is likely to land.
Press resistance
The sides who concede the lowest expected-goals-against per game under high opposition pressure this season are not always the sides who make the most of it. We set out the two metrics that matter and how to read them on the fixtures page.
Half-space rotations
The half-space rotations that defined the group stage have been less common in the knockout competition than they were a season ago. We explain why a tactical shift from a 3-2-5 to a 2-3-5 wide mid-block has changed the picture.
Back-three revival
A handful of sides who played a back four for most of the season have switched to a back three for the knockout stages. We name the four most likely candidates and the tactical trade-off that the switch introduces.
Methodology
Pressing and half-space metrics are calculated from licensed event-data providers. The calculation method is on the methodology page.